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Stock returns and economic fundamentals in an emerging market: An empirical investigation of domestic and global market forces
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Stock returns and economic fundamentals in an emerging market: An empirical investigation of domestic and global market forces

Thomas C. Chiang and Xiaoyu Chen
International review of economics & finance, v 43
May 2016

Abstract

Asymmetric volatility Economic fundamentals Long memory PARCH Stock return
This paper presents a model that links an emerging market's stock returns to domestic economic forces: changes in the dividend yield, trading volume, stock volatility, and illiquidity; and to global market forces: changes in the exchange rate, US market returns, and stress in the US market. Testing the data on aggregate market and 10 industrial sectors using an asymmetric PARCH procedure, we find evidence supporting a link to domestic forces. However, after adding changes in the exchange rate, US stock returns, and stress in the US market to the model, these global market forces overwhelmingly dominate the explanation of stock returns.

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19 citations in Scopus

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#8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

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Collaboration types
International collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Business, Finance
Economics
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