Journal article
The Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Rate -- A Stochastic Coefficient Approach
Journal of money, credit and banking, v 20(2)
01 May 1988
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Abstract
A stochastic coefficient model is developed to examine the unbiased forward-rate hypothesis (UFH) using exchange rate behavior on both full-sample and subsample estimations. Under the UFH, the forward rate in forward exchange markets is considered an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. Studies by Edwards (1982, 1983), Kohlhagen (1975), Longworth (1981), and Cornell (1977) have supported the UFH. Most empirical tests of the UFH are based on full-sample estimations, which assume that the structure of the behavioral relation is constant over time. Results of a full-sample estimation confirm the UFH for 4 markets studied (Canadian dollar, French franc, German mark, and British pound). The results of the subsample using joint-rolling regressions reject the UFH in most cases. The accuracy of the exchange rate predictions is improved when information underlying the stochastic pattern of the estimated parameters is used in forecasting. Time-series factors should be incorporated into the exchange rate predictions.
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Details
- Title
- The Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Rate -- A Stochastic Coefficient Approach
- Creators
- Thomas Chiang
- Publication Details
- Journal of money, credit and banking, v 20(2)
- Publisher
- Ohio State University Press
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:A1988N410100006
- Other Identifier
- 991019183916704721
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- Web of Science research areas
- Business, Finance
- Economics