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The Impact of Keeping Indoor Dining Closed on COVID-19 Rates Among Large US Cities A Quasi-Experimental Design
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

The Impact of Keeping Indoor Dining Closed on COVID-19 Rates Among Large US Cities A Quasi-Experimental Design

Alina S. Schnake-Mahl, Gabriella O'Leary, Pricila H. Mullachery, Vaishnavi Vaidya, Gabrielle Connor, Heather Rollins, Jennifer Kolker, Ana V. Diez Roux and Usama Bilal
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), v 33(2), pp 200-208
01 Mar 2022
PMID: 34799474
Featured in Collection :   UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
url
https://doi.org/10.1097/ede.0000000000001444View
Published, Version of Record (VoR)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0 Open

Abstract

Life Sciences & Biomedicine Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Science & Technology
Background: Indoordining isone of the potential drivers of COVID-19 transmission. We used the heterogeneity among state government preemption of city indoor dining closures to estimate the impact of keeping indoor dining closed on COVID-19 incidence. Methods: We obtained case rates and city or state reopening dates from March to October 2020 in 11 US cities. We categorized cities as treatment cities that were allowed by the state to reopen but kept indoor dining closed or comparison cities that would have kept indoor dining closed but that were preempted by their state and had to reopen indoor dining. We modeled associations using a differencein-difference approach and an event study specification. We ran negative binomial regression models, with city-day as the unit of analysis, city population as an offset, and controlling for time-varying non-pharmaceutical interventions, as well as city and time fixed effects in sensitivity analysis and the event study specification. Results: Keeping indoor dining closed was associated with a 55% (IRR = 0.45; 95% confidence intervals = 0.21, 0.99) decline in the new COVI D-19 case rate over 6 weeks compared with cities that reopened indoor dining, and these results were consistent after testing alternative modeling strategies. Conclusions: Keeping indoor dining closed may be directly or indirectly associated with reductions in COVID-19 spread. Evidence of the relationship between indoor dining and COVID-19 case rates can inform policies to restrict indoor dining as a tailored strategy to reduce COVI D-19 incidence. See video abstract at, http://links.1ww. com/EDE/B902.

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Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
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