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Journal article
The effect of population mobility on COVID-19 incidence in 314 Latin American cities: a longitudinal ecological study with mobile phone location data
The Lancet. Digital health, v 3(11), pp E716-E722
01 Nov 2021
PMID: 34456179
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Background Little is known about the effect of changes in mobility at the subcity level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence, which is particularly relevant in Latin America, where substantial barriers prevent COVID-19 vaccine access and non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to mitigation efforts. We aimed to examine the longitudinal associations between population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level across a large number of Latin American cities.
Methods In this longitudinal ecological study, we compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and features of urban and social environments to analyse population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level among cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico, from March 2 to Aug 29, 2020. Spatially aggregated mobile phone data were provided by the UN Development Programme in Latin America and the Caribbean and Grandata; confirmed COVID-19 cases were from national government reports and population and socioeconomic factors were from the latest national census in each country. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression for a time-series analysis, to examine longitudinal associations between weekly mobility changes from baseline (prepandemic week of March 2-9, 2020) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence (lagged by 1-6 weeks) at the subcity level, adjusting for urban environmental and socioeconomic factors (time-invariant educational attainment, residential overcrowding, population density [all at the subcity level], and country).
Findings We included 1031 subcity areas, representing 314 Latin American cities, in Argentina (107 subcity areas), Brazil (416), Colombia (82), Guatemala (20), and Mexico (406). In the main adjusted model, we observed an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 2.35 (95% CI 2.12-2.60) for COVID-19 incidence per log unit increase in the mobility ratio (vs baseline) during the previous week. Thus, 10% lower weekly mobility was associated with 8.6% (95% CI 7.6-9.6) lower incidence of COVID-19 in the following week. This association gradually weakened as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from null at a 6-week lag.
Interpretation Reduced population movement within a subcity area is associated with a subsequent decrease in COVID-19 incidence among residents of that subcity area. Policies that reduce population mobility at the subcity level might be an effective COVID-19 mitigation strategy, although they should be combined with strategies that mitigate any adverse social and economic consequences of reduced mobility for the most vulnerable groups. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Details
- Title
- The effect of population mobility on COVID-19 incidence in 314 Latin American cities: a longitudinal ecological study with mobile phone location data
- Creators
- Josiah L. Kephart - Drexel UniversityXavier Delclos-Alio - University of California, BerkeleyDaniel A. Rodriguez - University of California, BerkeleyOlga L. Sarmiento - Universidad de Los AndesTonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez - National Institute of Public HealthManuel Ramirez-Zea - Institute of Nutrition of Central America and PanamaD. Alex Quistberg - Drexel UniversityUsama Bilal - Drexel UniversityAna Diez Roux - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- The Lancet. Digital health, v 3(11), pp E716-E722
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Number of pages
- 7
- Grant note
- 205177/Z/16/Z / Wellcome Trust; European Commission DP5OD26429 / Office of the Director of the US National Institutes of Health; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Urban Health Collaborative
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000723682800009
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85118980464
- Other Identifier
- 991019167602104721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Medical Informatics