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The influence of technical violation revocations on parole efficacy: employing competing risks survival analyses to address methodological challenges
Journal article   Peer reviewed

The influence of technical violation revocations on parole efficacy: employing competing risks survival analyses to address methodological challenges

Michael Ostermann, Jordan M. Hyatt and Samuel E. DeWitt
Journal of crime & justice, v 43(3), pp 323-341
26 May 2020

Abstract

Competing risks Corrections Recidivism Survival Analysis
Failures among the community supervision population are a major contributor to prison populations. Revocations of parole supervision due to technical parole violations (TPRs) often result in the incarceration of a parolee for violating the terms of their supervised release. This study employs several strategies for integrating TPRs into the construct of recidivism, a common outcome measure in correctional evaluations. TPRs are either ignored, combined with rearrest, or treated as a competing risk to rearrest. Each framework is employed to estimate survival rates among multi-year prison release cohorts in which parolee supervision is stratified by actuarial risk level. Results suggest that the way TPRs are integrated into evaluations of parolee recidivistic behavior patterns can influence the magnitude and nature of a study's results. This is significant as costly policy decisions are often informed by evaluation research focusing on time to failure measures. Methodological and ideological remedies are proposed.

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11 citations in Scopus

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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
#3 Good Health and Well-Being

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Collaboration types
Domestic collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Criminology & Penology
Law
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