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Threshold parameters for a simple stochastic partnership model of sexually transmitted diseases formulated as a two-type CMJ process
Journal article

Threshold parameters for a simple stochastic partnership model of sexually transmitted diseases formulated as a two-type CMJ process

C J Mode
IMA journal of mathematics applied in medicine and biology, v 14(4)
Dec 1997
PMID: 9415994

Abstract

Female Humans Male Markov Chains Models, Statistical Probability Sexual Behavior Sexually Transmitted Diseases - epidemiology Sexually Transmitted Diseases - mortality Sexually Transmitted Diseases - transmission Stochastic Processes
A simple stochastic model describing an epidemic of a sexually transmitted disease, accommodating the formation and dissolution of partnerships, was formulated within a two-type Crump-Mode-Jagers (CMJ) process in continuous time. A submodel, describing the formation and dissolution of partnerships, was formulated in terms of a semi-Markov process with a finite state space and death as an absorbing state. This model was then linked to a two-type CMJ process through offspring distributions. Numerical values of threshold parameters greater than one suggests that either the epidemic dies out with a probability significantly different form zero or it spreads explosively in the population.

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Web of Science research areas
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
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