Logo image
Time-Dose-Response Models for Microbial Risk Assessment
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Time-Dose-Response Models for Microbial Risk Assessment

Yin Huang and Charles N. Haas
Risk analysis, v 29(5), pp 648-661
01 May 2009
PMID: 19187487

Abstract

Life Sciences & Biomedicine Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences Mathematics Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications Physical Sciences Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Science & Technology Social Sciences Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
While microbial risk assessment (MRA) has been used for over 25 years, traditional dose-response analysis has only predicted the overall risk of adverse consequences from exposure to a given dose. An important issue for consequence assessment from bioterrorist and other microbiological exposure is the distribution of cases over time due to the initial exposure. In this study, the classical exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models were modified to include exponential-power dependency of time post inoculation (TPI) or its simplified form, exponential-reciprocal dependency of TPI, to quantify the time of onset of an effect presumably associated with the kinetics of in vivo bacterial growth. Using the maximum likelihood estimation approach, the resulting time-dose-response models were found capable of providing statistically acceptable fits to all tested pooled animal survival dose-response data. These new models can consequently describe the development of animal infectious response over time and represent observed responses fairly accurately. This is the first study showing that a time-dose-response model can be developed for describing infections initiated by various pathogens. It provides an advanced approach for future MRA frameworks.

Metrics

4 Record Views
37 citations in Scopus

Details

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#3 Good Health and Well-Being

InCites Highlights

Data related to this publication, from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool:

Web of Science research areas
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Logo image