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Uncertainty in Baseline Regression Modeling and in Determination of Retrofit Savings
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Uncertainty in Baseline Regression Modeling and in Determination of Retrofit Savings

T. A Reddy, J. K Kissock, D. K Ruch and Agami T Reddy
Journal of solar energy engineering, v 120(3)
01 Aug 1998

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to discuss the various sources of uncertainty inherent in the estimation of actual measured energy savings from baseline regression models, and to present pertinent statistical concepts and formulae to determine this uncertainty. Regression models of energy use in commercial buildings are not of the “standard” type addressed in textbooks because of the changepoint behavior of the models and the effect of patterned and non-constant variance residuals (largely as a result of changes in operating modes of the building and the HVAC system). This paper also addresses such issues as how model prediction is impacted by both improper model residuals and models identified from data periods which do not encompass the entire range of variation of both climatic conditions and the different building operating modes.

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42 citations in Scopus

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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This publication has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
#7 Affordable and Clean Energy
#13 Climate Action

InCites Highlights

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Collaboration types
Domestic collaboration
Web of Science research areas
Energy & Fuels
Engineering, Mechanical
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