Journal article
Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?
Archives of public health = Archives belges de santé publique, Vol.80(1), pp.22-22
08 Jan 2022
PMID: 34998438
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Background Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. Conclusions In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.
Metrics
1 Record Views
Details
- Title
- Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?
- Creators
- Mustafa Al-Zoughool - Kuwait UniversityTamer Oraby - The University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyHarri Vainio - Kuwait UniversityJanvier Gasana - Kuwait UniversityJoseph Longenecker - Univ Kuwait, Fac Publ Hlth, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth, Kuwait, KuwaitWalid Al Ali - Kuwait UniversityMohammad AlSeaidan - Ministry of HealthSusie Elsaadany - University of OttawaMichael G. Tyshenko - University of Ottawa
- Publication Details
- Archives of public health = Archives belges de santé publique, Vol.80(1), pp.22-22
- Publisher
- Springer Nature
- Number of pages
- 8
- Grant note
- CORONA-46 / Kuwait Institute for Advancement of Science (KFAS)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000740363500001
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85122738484
- Other Identifier
- 991022051413204721
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:
InCites Highlights
These are selected metrics from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool, related to this output
- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Public, Environmental & Occupational Health