Journal article
Variance in Bacillus anthracis virulence assessed through Bayesian hierarchical dose-response modelling
Journal of applied microbiology, v 113(2), pp 265-275
01 Aug 2012
PMID: 22515543
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Aims: To develop a predictive doseresponse model for describing the survival of animals exposed to Bacillus anthracis to support risk management options. Methods and Results: Doseresponse curves were generated from a large dosemortality data set (>11 000 data points) consisting of guinea pigs exposed via the inhalation route to 76 different product preparations of B.similar to anthracis. Because of the predictive nature of the Bayesian hierarchical approach (BHA), this method was used. The utility of this method in planning for a variety of scenarios from best case to worst case was demonstrated. Conclusions: A wide range of expected virulence was observed across products. Median estimates of virulence match well with previously published statistical estimates, but upper bound values of virulence are much greater than previous statistical estimates. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study is the first meta-analysis in open literature to estimate the doseresponse relationship for B.similar to anthracis from a very large data set, generally a rare occurrence for highly infectious pathogens. The results are also the first to suggest the extent of variability, which is contributed by product preparation and/or dissemination methods, information needed for health-based risk management decisions in response to a deliberate release. A set of possible benchmark values produced through this analysis can be tied to the risk tolerance of the decision-maker or available intelligence. Further, the substantial size of the data set led to the ability to assess the appropriateness of the assumed distributional form of the prior, a common limitation in Bayesian analysis.
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Details
- Title
- Variance in Bacillus anthracis virulence assessed through Bayesian hierarchical dose-response modelling
- Creators
- J. Mitchell-Blackwood - Drexel UniversityP. L. Gurian - Drexel UniversityR. Lee - United States ArmyB. Thran - Environmental Health Risk Assessment Program, Health Risk Management Portfolio, US Army Public Health Command Army Institute of Public Health, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, USA
- Publication Details
- Journal of applied microbiology, v 113(2), pp 265-275
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Number of pages
- 11
- Grant note
- R83236201 / US Environmental Protection Agency under the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) grant program US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine (USACHPPM) Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment US Department of Homeland Security; United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) US Army, of the Pathogen Information Catalog (PICAT)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000306401300005
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-84863998551
- Other Identifier
- 991019167933104721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology
- Microbiology