Journal article
Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic
Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), v 16(10), pp 2323-2330
01 Oct 2008
PMID: 18719634
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity-related health-care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health-care costs of obesity/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health-care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46-0.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican-American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI >= 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health-care costs attributable to obesity/overweight would double every decade to 860.7-956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16-18% of total US health-care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections.
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Details
- Title
- Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic
- Creators
- Youfa Wang - BloombergMay A. Beydoun - BloombergLan Liang - Agency for Healthcare Research and QualityBenjamin Caballero - BloombergShiriki K. Kumanyika - University of Pennsylvania
- Publication Details
- Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), v 16(10), pp 2323-2330
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Number of pages
- 8
- Grant note
- NIDDK R01 DK63383; NICHD 1R03HD056073 / National Institutes of Health; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA R01DK063383 / NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DIABETES AND DIGESTIVE AND KIDNEY DISEASES; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Diabetes & Digestive & Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) 2044-05322 / US Department of Agriculture; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) R03HD056073 / EUNICE KENNEDY SHRIVER NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF CHILD HEALTH &HUMAN DEVELOPMENT; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Urban Health Collaborative; Dana and David Dornsife School of Public Health
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000259649400020
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-53849092685
- Other Identifier
- 991019312338304721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Endocrinology & Metabolism
- Nutrition & Dietetics