Logo image
When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labor markets
Letter/Communication   Open access   Peer reviewed

When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labor markets

André Kurmann, Etienne Lalé and Julien Martin
Journal of international economics, v 162, 104269
Aug 2026
Featured in Collection :   Drexel's Newest Publications
url
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104269View
Published, Version of Record (VoR) Open

Abstract

Business dynamics Employment Smartphone data Tourism
We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.

Metrics

1 Record Views

Details

Logo image