Letter/Communication
When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labor markets
Journal of international economics, v 162, 104269
Aug 2026
Featured in Collection : Drexel's Newest Publications
Abstract
We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.
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Details
- Title
- When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labor markets
- Creators
- André Kurmann - Drexel UniversityEtienne Lalé - York UniversityJulien Martin - Université du Québec à Montréal
- Publication Details
- Journal of international economics, v 162, 104269
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Number of pages
- 12
- Grant note
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council
- Resource Type
- Letter/Communication
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Economics (School of Economics)
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:001790832300001
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-105039700181
- Other Identifier
- 991022183475904721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Economics