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ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees
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ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees

Zhiyuan Wang, Jinhao Duan, Lu Cheng, Yue Zhang, Qingni Wang, Hengtao Shen, Xiaofeng Zhu, Xiaoshuang Shi and Kaidi Xu
ArXiv.org
29 Jun 2024
url
https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.00499View
Preprint (Author's original)arXiv.org - Non-exclusive license to distribute Open

Abstract

Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence Computer Science - Computation and Language Computer Science - Learning
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the intricate nature of the recent large language models (LLMs). This study investigates adapting conformal prediction (CP), which can convert any heuristic measure of uncertainty into rigorous theoretical guarantees by constructing prediction sets, for black-box LLMs in open-ended NLG tasks. We propose a sampling-based uncertainty measure leveraging self-consistency and develop a conformal uncertainty criterion by integrating the uncertainty condition aligned with correctness into the design of the CP algorithm. Experimental results indicate that our uncertainty measure generally surpasses prior state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, we calibrate the prediction sets within the model's unfixed answer distribution and achieve strict control over the correctness coverage rate across 6 LLMs on 4 free-form NLG datasets, spanning general-purpose and medical domains, while the small average set size further highlights the efficiency of our method in providing trustworthy guarantees for practical open-ended NLG applications.

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