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When neighbours stop knocking: The hidden impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on US local labour markets
VoxEU
07 Mar 2026
Abstract
President Trump’s rhetoric about a possible acquisition of Canada and escalating trade tensions led to a 25% decline in Canadian visits to the US in 2025. This column uses smartphone foot-traffic data and employment records to explore how this negative demand shock affected US local labour markets, especially in the food services, retail, and leisure sectors. By mid-2025, establishments in areas with the highest share of Canadians among visitors employed roughly 6% fewer workers relative to establishments in less exposed markets, and spillover effects may imply even larger employment losses. The findings highlight a channel of harm that trade policy debates often overlook.
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Details
- Title
- When neighbours stop knocking: The hidden impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on US local labour markets
- Creators
- Andre Kurmann - Drexel University, Economics (School of Economics)Etienne Lalé - York UniversityJulien Martin - Université du Québec à Montréal
- Publication Details
- VoxEU
- Publisher
- Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO
- Number of pages
- 40
- Resource Type
- Report
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Economics (School of Economics)
- Other Identifier
- 991022165639404721
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