Journal article
Dynamic risk analysis using alarm databases to improve process safety and product quality: Part IIuBayesian analysis
AIChE journal, v 58(3), pp 826-841
01 Mar 2012
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Part II presents step (iii) of the dynamic risk analysis methodology; that is, a novel Bayesian analysis method that utilizes near-misses from distributed control system (DCS) and emergency shutdown (ESD) system databasesto calculate the failure probabilities of safety, quality, and operability systems (SQOSs) and probabilities of occurrence of incidents. It accounts for the interdependences among the SQOSs using copulas, which occur because of the nonlinear relationships between the variables and behavior-based factors involving human operators. Two types of copula functions, multivariate normal and CuadrasAuge copula, are used. To perform Bayesian simulation, the random-walk, multiple-block, MetropolisHastings algorithm is used. The benefits of copulas in sharing information when data are limited, especially in the cases of rare events such as failures of override controllers, and automatic and manual ESD systems, are presented. In addition, product-quality data complement safety data to enrich near-miss information and to yield more reliable results. Step (iii) is applied to a fluidized-catalytic-cracking unit (FCCU) to show its performance. (c) 2011 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2012
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Details
- Title
- Dynamic risk analysis using alarm databases to improve process safety and product quality: Part IIuBayesian analysis
- Creators
- Ankur Pariyani - University of PennsylvaniaWarren D. Seider - University of PennsylvaniaUlku G. Oktem - University of PennsylvaniaMasoud Soroush - Drexel University
- Publication Details
- AIChE journal, v 58(3), pp 826-841
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Number of pages
- 16
- Grant note
- CTS-0553941 / National Science Foundation; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- Chemical and Biological Engineering
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000301225500015
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-84856601354
- Other Identifier
- 991019168041304721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Engineering, Chemical