Journal article
Risk Score for Predicting Long-Term Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery
Circulation (New York, N.Y.), v 125(20), pp 2423-2430
22 May 2012
PMID: 22547673
Featured in Collection : UN Sustainable Development Goals @ Drexel
Abstract
Background-No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.
Methods and Results-The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2% in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated.
Conclusion-The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice. (Circulation. 2012;125:2423-2430.)
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Details
- Title
- Risk Score for Predicting Long-Term Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery
- Creators
- Chuntao Wu - Pennsylvania State UniversityFabian T. Camacho - Pennsylvania State UniversityAndrew S. Wechsler - Drexel UniversityStephen Lahey - University of ConnecticutAlfred T. Culliford - New York UniversityDesmond Jordan - Columbia UniversityJeffrey P. Gold - University of ToledoRobert S. D. Higgins - The Ohio State UniversityCraig R. Smith - Columbia UniversityEdward L. Hannan - University at Albany, State University of New York
- Publication Details
- Circulation (New York, N.Y.), v 125(20), pp 2423-2430
- Publisher
- Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
- Number of pages
- 8
- Grant note
- New York State Cardiac Advisory Committee RC1HL099122 / National Institutes of Health; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA RC1HL099122 / NATIONAL HEART, LUNG, AND BLOOD INSTITUTE; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Heart Lung & Blood Institute (NHLBI)
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Language
- English
- Academic Unit
- [Retired Faculty]
- Web of Science ID
- WOS:000306974900014
- Scopus ID
- 2-s2.0-85027942112
- Other Identifier
- 991019168133804721
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- Web of Science research areas
- Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems
- Peripheral Vascular Disease